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Reflection on past Crypto Bull Runs and Lessons Learned


I've been catching up on some most active dailies in the past week so it made me wanna reflect back on past, especially crypto bull runs and lessons learned.

Unfortunately, I don't have the links to the exact comments but if you read the dailies you'll remember.

1. It takes 3 crypto cycles to become wise and know how to play.

After reading that one I actually realized I made the moves for the first cycle selling and it was a pretty good decision.

  • I tried getting curious about why I did that. In hindsight, it seems it was easier to sell, at least a lil bit, when an investment goes x40-x100.

  • When blowoff top happens, most gains happen within days if not hours. I remember selling btc at 10k and thinking it was stupid, only for it to go to 20k the next day and then back to 10k in a few more days. I didn't sell any significant amounts so it didn't affect me much but small profits were also nice to have and realized that I could get real money for crypto, especially back then.

  • So you can miss out on unreal exponential gains just by hours. What's even worse, you can tap out from the whole thing in months. I had met people who had insane amounts of btc coins at that time and who were selling. Fast forward 6-8 months later, the price is x20-x30 and those people completely missed out on the profits while they held for years and bear markets before.

2. Sell strategy.

  • The best one that I personally found after tinkering with things is the Log curve. While laddering would be more linear, log allows you to set your min price, your max price, and what you wanna get in totals for your amount, you plot the graph and see how much % at whatever you need to sell while accounting that you might be inaccurate with the max price as it never reaches that peak amount.

3. Your sell strategy is not a guarantee.

  • So last bull market I had my strategy, I plotted different graphs and made sure that if the price doesn't hit insane targets I would still sell enough for it to play out. Well, my strategy didn't work out at all. I don't think I had any insane targets, I didn't wanna sell too early but also wanted to get at least something decent for myself. Targets of 300k btc weren't that crazy, altho on the way crazier side. 180k seemed like a reasonable price. What about 100k? That shit was guaranteed as a day. When btc was at 50k I heard so many people saying 100k is inevitable and they'd rather get a btc than a Tesla or smth. Btc didn't even hit 70k.

  • This also kinda goes back to some points of the 1 topic. It's different being in the first bull market compared to the next ones WHEN you didn't sell the tops before. Last bull, btc hit a mere x3ish compared to the previous top. Doesn't make you feel like it's going parabolic yet when before it would do x17 from the previous top.

  • I'm nowhere a pro in markets nor do I claim to be but I guess it's been clear that markets have been changing and 'this time it is different' actually makes more sense. Things are different. Bear and bull markets are different. This is the first bear we went below ATHs of past bull runs. There are many more factors including tradfi players entering more. And at the end of the day, the sample size is too small to base it on. And since we are here understanding the value of Ether compared to Bitcoin and other alts, I feel like it only makes it clearer that things are still different and markets are more irrational than they are.

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