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GCR's History — The Lesson from Conviction and Patience

A Legendary Trader who taught us how to Predict and HODL

This article provides the summary of "GIGANTIC REBIRTH: TOP CRYPTO TRADERS 2024" from ARKHAM.

Cover image showing Gigantic Rebirth holding a gun and the words 'GIGANTIC REBIRTH (GCR)'.

Summary

1. Introduction

  1. GCR is a legendary CT in the crypto, known by his alias (Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth) used in FTX.

  2. From 2021 to 2022, this individual frequently appeared on the FTX leaderboard.

  3. Gained fame during the bear market of 2022 by successfully shorting altcoins.

  4. Notably, in April, he made headlines for placing a $20 million short bet on Luna.

GCR's dashboard on Arkham, source: ARKHAM

2. Background and History

  1. Began with a seed capital of $1,000.

  2. Solely increased his seed through trading, primarily using political forecasting.

  3. Invested up to 120 hours per week on Twitter, working even harder during bear markets.

  4. Amassed a significant followers in 2021 and 2022, then went silent at the beginning of 2023.

3. Early 2021 - The Bull Market

  1. GCR enjoyed taking positions contrary to market consensus from the start, embodying the principle of "sell greed and buy fear."

  2. Continuously emphasized the virtues of 'patience' and 'expertise in a single sector.'

  3. Warned of a coming bear market in April and May 2021, cautioning against a retail-led bull market.

4. Late 2021

  1. Persistently warned of a bear market arriving in 2022.

  2. Showed interest in NFTs in August, due to their lower market cap compared to meme coins, and purchased hundreds of Pudgy Penguins.

  3. Founded RebirthDAO, a decentralized hedge fund.

GCR buying hundreds of Penguins.

5. The Big Short of 2022

  1. Two weeks after BTC hit its all-time high of $69k in October 2021, GCR left a note about "back and shorting" and took a vacation on November 22nd.

  2. He then focused on identifying oversold altcoins.

  3. Targeted coins with the highest planned inflation and gathered information on token unlocks.

  4. Concentrated on shorting the 'weakest' altcoins rather than BTC or ETH, especially those with a majority of their supply being unlocked in the first three to six months of 2022.

  5. Many of these targeted coins were part of the Solana ecosystem, supported by FTX funding, and had a high proportion of investor volume locked in low liquidity tokens.

  6. The most profitable position was shorting Luna, netting a profit of $230 million.

  7. Also predicted an increase in DeFi hacks during the 2022 bear market, advising to "bet on incentives during bear markets."

  8. However, GCR did not anticipate the FTX bankruptcy.

GCR gained a fortune shorting LUNA

6. 2023 and Beyond

  1. After the bankruptcy of FTX, the @GiganticRebirth account was deleted, and he resumed activity under @GCRClassic.

  2. In early 2023, he predicted a bull market originating from China.

  3. Advocated for engaging on WeChat.

  4. From 2021 to the 2024 presidential election, placed bets on Donald Trump.

  5. Purchased over 300 Milady tokens from January to March 2023, selling half of them in June following a mention by Elon Musk.

  6. Successfully arbitrage traded $4 million of USDT for USDC during the USDC depegging event.

  7. Ceased Twitter activity on April 20, 2023, after a final post stating "ETH 10k."

The last tweet from GCR

IMO

  1. Lessons learned from him

    1. Establish strong convictions and demonstrate unwavering strength and patience.

    2. Possess the judgment to not merely follow market trends but to anticipate the future.

    3. Have the decisiveness to act on knowledge, like the USDT to USDC swap, which, while widely known, few dared to execute.

  2. But,

    1. To multiply wealth like GCR, one must almost exclusively sleep and consume Twitter, dedicating over 17 hours a day.

    2. Must always bear the risk associated with futures trading.

  3. TLDR; Do not be swayed by the market; instead, conduct daily research, develop a thesis, and invest accordingly.


  1. We are currently passing the early stages of a bull market, where the narrative cycle changes exceptionally quickly, transitioning from:

    Bitcoin Ecosystem -> Solana -> Airdrop boom -> Inscription -> Modular & DA -> Alt L1s -> DePin/DeSoc -> Ethereum Ecosystem(LRT, L2) -> Again Bitcoin Ecosystem -> AI

    • Also there were some small narratives that came along with the mainstream above, such as RWA, Gaming, Japan, China, Identity, etc.

  2. Without a personal thesis, chasing sectors simply follwing their prices could likely make one a victim of the capital shifts occurring during these narrative cycles.

  3. So, what's the strategy? I recommend 'Maintain one stable main position with low volatility (holding stables/ETH for airdrops, depositing Bitcoin or Ethereum) + two sub-investments in high liquidity areas':

    • For sub-investments, look for those just beginning to be mentioned on X and less talked about on Telegram.

    • Focus on sectors that haven't yet caught the narrative wave or those where the narrative has significantly aged.


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