As the Denver event passes us, we are now knee-deep in Crypto Winter. However, the devs are building, and things have improved a lot since the last depressive dip on the POST FTX debacle. We must, however, be diligent; we need to take an objective look at where we are headed.
What special economic events happened in the past week?
Fed Chair Powell Testifies (USD) - Tue, Mar 7
When Fed Chair Powell speaks, people listen. It's like a teacher telling you important information in class. In this case, Powell talks about the economy and what the government is doing to keep it strong.
Powell's words can make people feel either good or bad about the economy. If he says things are going well, people might feel good and spend more money (thus, stocks going up). But if he says things are bad, people might feel scared and not spend as much money (thus, stocks going down).
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) - Wed, Mar 8
Non-Farm Employment Change is a measure of how many jobs were added or lost in the United States, except for jobs in farming (like growing fruits and vegetables or raising animals). It counts the number of people who started working at a new job or who lost their job in all other industries, like manufacturing, healthcare, or retail.
So, if the Non-Farm Employment Change number is positive, it means more people got jobs than lost them in those industries. And if the number is negative, it means more people lost jobs than got them. It's a way to see how well the economy is doing and whether more people are working.
Revised GDP q/q (EUR) - Wed, Mar 8
Revised GDP q/q is like a report card for the economy. It tells us if the economy is doing well or not. If the report card is good and the GDP goes up, it means that the country is making more things and people are buying more things, which is good for the economy. This means that there might be more jobs available, and people might have more money to spend.
But if the report card is bad and the GDP goes down, it means that the country is not making as many things, and people are not buying as many things. This is not good for the economy, and it might mean that there are fewer job opportunities and people might have less money to spend.
Overall, the Revised GDP q/q is an important thing for people to pay attention to because it tells us how well the economy is doing, and that can affect many parts of our lives.
Current market sentiment
Now let’s look at the past week's performance of the main sentiments of the market.
→ DXY - We ended the week in the red after 4 straight weeks of gains. We observe this week and identify we are again back to dollar-dropping hot pockets or a steady rise.
→ ES - Stocks gained last week, but for the past 3 weeks, we were in the red. I think we are breaking the pattern again this week and steadily pushing up.
→ NQ - has displayed similar behaviors to ES, but NQ has more tech stocks; thus, we might see acceleration if good news is indeed whispered by Powell.
Crypto Events
ETHDenver 2023 is one of the largest blockchain events that provide an opportunity for Ethereum and blockchain enthusiasts, designers, and developers to showcase their skills and learn from one another. With a focus on building value for the community and realizing a decentralized future, the event promised to be an exciting and informative one.
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Undervalued Opportunities - Arweave
What is Arweave?
Arweave is a blockchain-based platform that provides permanent, low-cost storage for data and applications. The platform is designed to provide a permanent and tamper-proof data storage solution by leveraging blockchain technology. Arweave uses a consensus mechanism known as proof-of-access to achieve data immutability and durability. According to the platform's website, Arweave offers a scalable, low-cost, and decentralized storage solution that can be used for various applications, including decentralized applications (dApps), web hosting, and archiving of important data.
What is the main value proposition of Arweave?
The main value proposition of Arweave is its permanent, low-cost, and decentralized data storage solution. The platform uses a unique consensus mechanism that allows users to store data permanently on the blockchain. Arweave's approach to data storage is significantly different from traditional cloud storage solutions, where data is stored in centralized data centers that can be vulnerable to hacks, data loss, or censorship. Arweave's permanent storage solution provides a reliable and secure way of storing data that is resistant to censorship, tampering, or data loss. Moreover, Arweave's low-cost data storage solution makes it attractive to developers and businesses looking to build decentralized applications or store data at a low cost.
What are the main competitors of Arweave?
Arweave's main competitors include other blockchain-based storage solutions like Filecoin, Sia, and Storj. These projects also offer decentralized and permanent storage solutions for data and applications. However, each project has its unique approach to data storage and uses different consensus mechanisms and economic models. For example, Filecoin uses a proof-of-replication consensus mechanism, while Sia uses a proof-of-work consensus mechanism. Storj, on the other hand, uses a payment model that rewards storage providers for their services.
Why Arweave now?
The new version of ARWeave is out. Arweave version 2.6 is a data storage network that reduces storage acquisition costs and energy wastage. It incentivizes miners to self-organize and store full replicas of the dataset, allowing for faster data routing. A mining hash is produced once a second to find potential solutions, with a more optimal strategy requiring miners to store as many unique partitions as possible for the best results.
ARWeave is also growing 20% MoM -
Last month: Another all time high for Arweave transaction counts (+20% MoM).
Tomorrow: Arweave 2.6 activates bringing greener and more accessible mining, as well as self-optimizing storage markets.
The permaweb is humming.
This causes us stoics to think that we are going to see a run-up in the next couple of weeks. The past two weeks have been in the red with the overall sentiment of the market.
Strong Trends
OP
OP has seen a huge run in the past couple of weeks. The main reason for this is the narrative of L2 is strong, and Coinbase's launch of its own chain further pushes the narrative of OP up.
MATIC
There is a strong downward trend for MATIC, but as it reaches down, it has a strong potential to reach back up to higher highs. Market sentiment on DXY will strongly show where the tailwinds of MATIC will be.
NFTs
Nothing much to report on.
Technical evolutions
Eigen Framework
EigenLayer is a set of smart contracts deployed on the Ethereum network that creates an open marketplace for trust suppliers (stakes/validators) and trusts consumers (middlewares) in a capital-efficient manner. By opting into EigenLayer, stalkers rehypothecate their already staked ETH and receive rewards for the additional risk of lending trust to applications.
This allows middleware solutions to focus solely on bringing technical innovation to the table without having to solve technical and capital problems in order to bootstrap a trusted network. EigenLayer reduces barriers to entry and makes it easier for applications to build on top of Ethereum by leveraging ETH's trust to secure applications built on top of EigenLayer. EigenLayer is directly aligned with Ethereum and the Ethereum ecosystem, as more applications leverage ETH trust, increasing its network effects, and more capital is re-staked on EigenLayer smart contracts, increasing revenue (via fees) and creating its own network effect for any application seeking a decentralized trust network.
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