Welcome to the flarnchain newsletter, brought to you each and every week like an atomic clock. This week, the crypto markets dropped for the first time in several weeks. For about 4-5 weeks, markets have been a resounding up only, and this week, markets took a breather. However, just today there appears to have been a market rally, and now things are back on track as we head into the 4th Bitcoin halving, which is set to occur on April 20th, 2024.
Bitcoin ($BTC) sits at around $67k, Ethereum ($ETH) at around $3.5k and Flarnchain newsletter favorite Cosmos Hub ($ATOM) is currently lagging behind at a measly $11.72.
At the start of this newsletter, I mentioned that markets took a breather. Let's take a closer look. Here's the Bitcoin chart for the past 7 days:
Looks not too terrible, but that's because after getting close to $60k, Bitcoin bounced back up to $67.5k pretty quickly today. Now, let's zoom out a bit and look at the three month chart:
The thing about last weeks dip, is that it didn't even touch the highest highs from February. We are in a new paradigm for Bitcoin leading into a halving. Let's zoom out even mooooore.
The big double peak in the center of the screen from late 2020 to mid 2022 is the previous bull market. Bitcoin's price had not reached the previous bull market's peak prior to it's third halving, which occurred sometime in the spring of 2020.
When we look at this time around, Bitcoin has already reached an all-time-high, and the halving hasn't even occurred. The theory around Bitcoin halvings is that with a 50% reduction in new supply and no other factors changing, the simple law of supply and demand should dictate that Bitcoin price should rise. It would appear that Bitcoin's price is already rising substantially, thus perhaps this time around we are in a new paradigm... That doesn't change the fact that the halving is going to happen and that new supply will be cut in half. My prediction is that Bitcoin's price is going to increase dramatically.
It would appear that Bitcoin interest is just beginning to spike, but has not reached the highs from the previous cycle. It's interesting that "bitcoin' interest actually spiked in around September 2017, the previous-previous bull market. My theory for why that was the peak is that "crypto" interest began eating away at Bitcoin's overall share of attention, so I did a quick comparison:
We can see that crypto was not really trending at all until a minor blip in September 2017, and then a much larger spike during the previous bull market. Interest in crypto is also spiking right now, but has not yet reached levels seen in the past bull market.
What does this all mean? My thesis (which is really a thesis borrowed from lots of other people who follow these markets... I'm just agreeing with them) is that we haven't really seen anything yet. I think this year is going to be an absolutely insanely strong market for all risk-on assets, and I think crypto assets will outperform everything.
Market animal
this week's market animal was a Cerberus (🐶🐶🐶). Cerberus is a three headed dog that protects the gates of hell, according to Greek mythology. Even though the markets are down a bit this week, it doesn't really make sense to call this market a bear market. I don't think this market is a bear market.
I'm really just using this as an opportunity to promote the art collection I've been working on recently, puppy cerberus. It's going to be launched around April 20, 2024. I've been drawing various versions of this design every night for over a month, and by the time April 20th rolls around, I'll have enough traits and animations to complete a full collection. The collection will consist of 3,000 static drawings, 333 animations, and 33 xNFTs, which are interactive.
52 Weeks of Huahua
I've sort of been slacking on 52 weeks of Huahua. I've been following the rules of the experiment, but not a whole lot has been happening beyond that. I was hoping to use this as an opportunity to improve my ability to write on-chain queries, and query the wallet that has been accumulating Huahua, but I'm still tracking this the old fashioned way with a spreadsheet. Last week I purchased around 6,000 Huahua, which was worth about $1.30 -> you can analyze the wallet here if you want:
https://www.mintscan.io/chihuahua/address/chihuahua1mhdddwykuamekp43a20u3skwjct5622vrvysud
Alright, that's it for tonight.
To everyone who keeps reading this... thank you!
hope you have a wonderful rest of your week.
Cheers,
-Flarn
🤘🤘
