What is Coming in October?

October is coming!

We have all been waiting for this month with lots of hope.

Historically, October has been a bullish month. More on it later.

This October is no different. But the cherry on top? Bullish macro conditions.

• We have discussed the bullish US conditions.

• Now, the elephant in the room is China. And guess what? China probably will be the reason behind the upcoming explosive growth.

Trend is your friend.

Historically, October has been the most bullish month in crypto.

Bitcoin performed exceptionally well in October 2023. The reason behind the price surge was renewed institutional interest. October 2023 marked a recovery phase after volatility in Q2 and Q3 of 2023.

In the last five years, Bitcoin has seen double-digit gains, apart from 2022.

In fact, since 2013, there have been only two years of poor performance - 2014 and 2018.

Even in the peak bear year 2022, Bitcoin saw a modest recovery of 5.5%.

Bitcoin experienced a strong bull run in October 2021, and October was arguably the best performance of the year. Bitcoin pumped almost 40%.

In 2018, the market was still reeling from the 2017 bubble burst. 2017 ICO bubble took away demand, volume, and fomo. 2022 showed a similar trend with the metaverse bubble, yet BTC held strong.

In 2014, two major incidents happened.

• 2013 bubble

• Mt Gox

These two events pushed Bitcoin into eight red months in 2014. 2018 was the worst, with nine red months. Compared to that, 2022 was a relatively smooth bear market.

Bitcoin halving has a big role to play in the Uptober.

In 2016, the halving date was July 9, which fell into Q3 (the third quarter).

In 2020, the halving happened on May 11, Q2 of 2020.

In 2024, halving occurred on April 19, again in Q2.

Let’s check the Bitcoin performance in Q4, considering the halving Quarter.

In 2016, Q3 was bearish. This, however, led to a mega bullish Q4.

At the same time, 2020 Q2 was highly bullish (mostly because of the Covid bounce), and Q4 was mega bullish, leading to a 4x performance compared to Q2.

In 2024, the year resembles 2016: the halving quarter was bearish. Invariably, the Q4 should be bullish.

This means we might see the best Bitcoin rally of 2024 in Q4, and that too in October.

What about altcoins?

Alts might respond to Bitcoin pump, delivering similar or 2x performance. But the best alt rally can come after the Bitcoin rally is over. With the China factor, we are looking at an opportunity to extend the bull run to Q2 2025.

China has recently announced a significant economic stimulus package to revitalize its struggling economy.

Here is the major pointers of the economic stimulus package.

• 1 Trillion Yuan liquidity injection

• Interest rate reduced to 1.5%

• Government led $71 billion fund to provide financial support to brokers and insurance companies for stock purchases. China will also provide $40 billion to companies to facilitate shares buybacks.

• significant implications for the stock market

• major Chinese stock indices has performed well after the stimulus announcement

• consumer spending will increase

• All these will lead to INFLATION

• Yes, China will face the worst inflation crisis in the last 50 years. This means solid time for crypto.

Even though China is focused on stock market, Chinese people are not. We all know the crypto volume is controlled by Chinese whales.

These whales are seeing 4% daily pumps in stocks. At the same time, BTC hardly did a 2%.

Whales will act soon. They have twin objectives this time.

• To outperform stocks. The cumulative buying power from government fund alone will be $111Billion. If whales want to outperform, they will have to go for midcaps and lowcaps to move the market.

• To fight consumer side inflation. Whales are not worried about money and inflation. But they are worried about the consumer side inflation: the rise in stocks and the rise in crypto. While the whales might have planned to dump Bitcoin by a specific month in this bull run, they simply can not afford to risk the low entry they have.

In short, the Chinese whales will be the biggest buying force in October.

We have bought already, and we will buy even more.

The plan is simple: enjoy the Uptober, make good gains and prepare to DCA at every opportunity.

Do we have an exit plan? You bet. We have already given the target marketcap in the Portfolio sheet. On top of that, we have some dynamic profit taking plans.

Well, yes. Another 2022 will come soon enough. But this can be in 2026 or even 2027. We have many solid months ahead.

We will deal with the bear market when it comes, but that is perhaps too far away.

The 2021 stimulus package gave us a massive bull run, which lasted a year. The 2024 stimulus could be the same, if not better.

Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, showing consistent positive performance in most years, particularly in the years leading up to major bull runs like 2017 and 2020.

For October 2024, if current trends and macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, we could see another significant uptick. Road to 84K? Let’s wait and watch!!!