When Robinhood launched, it seemed to promise a new era. For the first time, trading was open to everyone. With a few taps on a smartphone, you could buy and sell stocks just like the professionals on Wall Street. Finance was finally being democratized.
But reality turned out to be harsher. Most people still lose money trading. Why?
Because the game is still rigged in favor of the big players. Winning in traditional markets is tough. Institutions and professional traders pour vast amounts of money into tools, data, and research to keep their edge. They have access to information that most retail traders never will. It’s like trying to play chess without being able to see the whole board.
Studies show that only a tiny fraction of individual traders are profitable over time. According to one study, only about 4% of day traders consistently make money. The rest end up losing.
Then along came blockchain.
Suddenly, new markets sprang up: cryptocurrencies, memecoins, NFTs. These weren’t just a continuation of the old ways. They were fundamentally different. The old rules didn’t apply. You couldn’t rely on a Bloomberg terminal to tell you which way the market would go. Instead, you needed to build new networks, learn new skills, and develop a new kind of intuition. It was a different game entirely—one where individuals and retail traders actually had a chance.
But let's be honest: not everyone wants to be a "degen."
I’m not. I’ve been deep in the crypto world for almost 4 years, but I’ve never been drawn to the chaos of memecoin trading or NFT flipping. It’s not that I think it’s impossible to win; it’s that I don’t know enough to make those bets, and I don’t find it interesting enough to want to learn.
Most people feel the same way. They’ve heard of memecoins and NFTs, but these markets aren’t mainstream because they don’t capture the average person's interest.
But blockchain isn’t just about creating new coins to trade. Its real power lies in something more subtle: Creating new markets, especially on the topics that used to be too niche or buecratic to create.
Prediction markets.
Platforms like Polymarket are already pioneering new kinds of markets that didn’t exist before. Mention markets, live-stream content markets, Tweet markets —these are just the beginning. Most people don’t want to spend hours poring over stock charts or learning the ins and outs of commodities trading. But there are plenty of things they care deeply about.
Think about pop culture. People spend countless hours consuming content about their favorite celebrities and influencers. Or local knowledge: we all know more about the cities we live in and the services we use than people who don’t.
For years, the categories of markets have been mostly the same: sports, politics, maybe a few others. But blockchain is going to blow that wide open. The space is going to expand from gambling to something much bigger, with a huge variety of new market categories.
Soon, you’ll be able to place bets or make trades on virtually anything:
The rise of a new musician or artist.
A new product line from your favorite brand.
The success of a local coffee shop or pop-up store.
Changes in weather patterns in specific cities.
As this trend grows, more and more people will engage with these markets. Some will do it for entertainment—imagine watching a live stream and betting on the outcome in real-time. Others will take it seriously, doing deep research, collaborating with other traders, and building specialized expertise in particular niches.
It’s a bit like poker: many people go to the casino to play for fun, but some study and practice the game deeply to turn professional.
And this is not just an extended version of zero sum gambling.
This could actually be a new kind of job for many because it creates entirely new kinds of value.
Some already argue that prediction markets like Polymarket are more reliable than traditional news outlets and I personally feel the same way. Why?
Because they require participants to put their money where their mouth is. In a world where anyone can say anything and attention often outweighs truth, that’s powerful.
In the future, people will check prediction markets like they check social media or news feeds today. They'll browse these markets to forecast the future—whether out of curiosity, for fun, or as a part of their work.
Right now, there are only about 1–2 million retail traders globally, according to some estimates.
But as new market categories emerge, that number will grow. We’ll see new kinds of professionals—YouTubers, Uber drivers, Airbnb hosts, Instagram influencers, podcasters—engaging in trading as part of their everyday lives. Just like every wave of technological change has created new professions, blockchain will create a new class of traders with names we haven’t even thought of yet.
