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Marathon Macro Week 7 of 2023

Marathon Macro Week 7 of 2023

The Potential Bull Market Trend: CPI Forecast Indicates Hawk Era

With an inflation rate of 6.41 percent in January 2023, the most recent CPI measurement put us in the Viper Era of the economic cycle. The fresh CPI numbers for March 2023, which are expected to be 5.64, show a drop in inflation, indicating that the cycle is entering the Hawk Period.

Given that high inflation frequently results in higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy, which can have a negative influence on stock prices, this drop in inflation may have a favorable effect on the stock market. The likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodating monetary policy might encourage economic expansion and raise stock prices, which would be advantageous for companies wishing to expand and invest.

Hence, as we enter the Hawk Era, the anticipated drop in the CPI may support the bull market trend together with the possibility of an accommodating monetary policy. The stock market is a complicated system that is impacted by a wide range of elements and circumstances, thus it is vital to keep in mind that future market performance cannot be anticipated with confidence.

Marathon Macro Week 7

Making Informed Decisions with the DIMS Daily Quant Watch

The DIMS Daily Quant Watch is a valuable tool that provides objective market analysis and insights into the current state of the economy. While it has not yet confirmed the Hawk Era, it remains an important indicator of the potential future trajectory of the market.

It is important to keep in mind that the era classifications provided by the DIMS Market Intelligence Tool are not definite predictions of future market conditions, but rather a framework for understanding economic trends. As we move forward, we should continue to monitor economic indicators and developments to make informed decisions about investments and other financial decisions.

While we can not predict with certainty what the future will hold, we can use the insights provided by the DIMS Market Intelligence Tool to help guide our decisions and navigate the complexities of the market. Stay tuned for updates as the situation evolves.

High Probability of Recession Looms, But Severity Remains Uncertain

According to recent data, there is a high likelihood of a recession occurring within the next 24 months, with a probability of 91.3%. While the timing and severity of the recession are uncertain, this high probability should be a cause for concern for those in the financial industry. The projections for the 12 and 6-month periods also show significant probabilities of 73.3% and 65.3%, respectively.

While the likelihood of a recession over the next two years is strong, it is vital to remember that the recession's severity is unpredictable. With the present market movements toward the hawk era and the new bull market, it is feasible that the recession will not be as bad as some estimates indicate.

The hawk era offers the possibility of a long stretch of economic expansion, which might lessen the effects of a prospective recession. Investors and companies should keep an eye on economic indications and be ready to put policies in place to lessen the possible negative effects of a recession.

Final Thoughts

As seen by the drop in inflation and the prospect for supportive monetary policy, the economy appears to be shifting from the Viper Era to the Hawk Era.

As time goes on, it is crucial to monitor economic indicators and be ready to modify investment strategy as necessary. The Market Segment provides a number of ETFs that investors may take into consideration, however cash and commodities may still be used as safe-haven investments.

It is also worth noting that the DIMS Daily Quant Watch remains a valuable tool for objective market analysis and insights. While it has not yet confirmed the Hawk Era, it's still an important indicator of the potential future trajectory of the market.

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