Bitcoin Halving, Wen Moon?

Roughly every four years we have a new Bitcoin Halving. This is when the reward earned by miners for verifying transactions on the blockchain is cut in half. As part of this mechanism built into the tokenomics of Bitcoin, this means that the supply of new tokens entering circulation slows down fairly significantly. With the next halving approaching quickly the block rewards will drop from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.215.

I see a lot of people online talking about how the past halvings led Bitcoin price to skyrocket, and many are expecting the same to happen with the next halving. However, I'm not convinced...things are very different today than they were 4, 8, and even 12 years ago. Let's look at the halving schedule

Historically speaking, halving did = moon.

In the lead up to the first halving the price of Bitcoin was around $12. Less than one year later it was up to $229 and then after that it was over $1,100. From there we saw Bitcoin get just shy of $20,000 after the 2nd halving. And after the third, the price was back down around $8500 but launched to $40,000 then $63,000 then $67,000. Check the charts below.

As we approach the next halving, where the reward goes from 6.25 BTC down to 3.125 BTC will we see the price rocket over $100,000 or higher in 2024 ?!

Personally, I don't think so and here is why:

• Crypto Is Mainstream - In 2024 crypto is about as mainstream as it gets.

  • Hundreds if not thousands of exchanges where you can buy and sell Bitcoin and thousands of other tokens on different blockchains.

  • Multiple publicly traded companies where you can buy Bitcoin and other tokens.

  • Multiple Bitcoin ETF's

• Not All Halvings are Equal - Going from 50-25 is not the same as 6.25 to 3.215

  • The impact of a halving is less and less over time. We'll never again experience the massive drop of 25 whole Bitcoins from a halving again.

• Time - The price mooning never happened right at the same time of the halving in the past.

  • So what would change this time? Typically, it was over a year after a halving occurred before the price really started to moon.

I've seen far too many people comment on the fact they think something magical is goin to happen on a day in the near future that just sends Bitcoin to Mars. But that doesn't make any sense. Why, if everyone knows about halving, would everyone wait until it happens in the next ~20-30 days to start buying? The accumulation has already happened, there really is no catalyst.

If I knew that for certain, I absolutely wouldn't be telling anyone, but in my opinion we'll be somewhere in the $40,000 - $50,000 range and not the $100,000 + that some would lead you to believe.