Future ephemeral urban communities will cyclically transition through three phases: primary phase - secondary phase - tertiary phase - reverting to the primary phase, initiating the subsequent cycle.
Primary phase: An inaugural structure emerges wherein organizers (policy architects) prioritize the interests of others, allocating public attention, reputation, and benefits to participants during community events. In essence, the policy architects opt to be the final beneficiaries of the community's advantages. During this phase, participants exhibit trust in the organizers, fostering a sense of security in the social order, enabling the nascent community to harmoniously integrate members with diverse ideologies and backgrounds, and promoting mutual trust among individuals.
Secondary phase: Building upon the primary phase, the community rapidly exhibits efficiency and dynamism, as most participants willingly contribute their time and endorse the community's reputation. Consequently, the community experiences substantial growth in user base, capital, and influence, fostering the emergence of numerous innovative and valuable projects.
Tertiary phase: The secondary phase is inherently scarce, and a community characterized by diversity, efficiency, and equity is inherently unstable. For instance, organizers may seek to allocate more resources to themselves, akin to startup founders claiming the majority of the benefits; alternatively, organizers may invest all their time and energy while participants eschew public contributions, preferring to free-ride, forcing organizers to shoulder an excessive workload in managing public affairs, resulting in the mental and physical collapse of public servants and community dysfunction. Alternatively, an influx of new members may lead to the formation of various subgroups among participants who experienced the primary phase, fostering increased distrust and conflicts, with tribalistic mentalities experiencing exponential growth. The resolution at this juncture involves prioritizing equity at the expense of efficiency and growth.
The tertiary phase emerges as the secondary phase destabilizes and begins to collapse, necessitating reform that prioritizes equity over efficiency.
Hypothetical quaternary phase: Does a scenario exist within the tertiary phase that maintains efficiency at the cost of equity?
Based on my observations, such an approach would only exacerbate conflicts—when organizers exhibit greed, others will abandon them; retaining free-riders or replacing organizers merely increases coordination costs and accelerates the next collapse cycle; once tribalism takes root, even if other factions are expelled, internal factions will continue to fragment and harbor mutual suspicions. Consequently, should the quaternary phase approach be adopted, Zuzalu-style ephemeral urban communities will serve as a cautionary tale and cease to exist.
Primordial phase: Initial structure -> Equity
Secondary phase: Equity -> Efficiency
Tertiary phase: Equity-efficiency cycle destabilizes, reform prioritizes equity over efficiency, reverting to the primordial phase.
This theoretical framework can be extrapolated to encompass broader communities, DAOs, and protocols.
