Messari recently dropped a free report on DePIN, predicting it to be the next big narrative in crypto. The report outlines the bull case for several specific DePIN tokens. DePIN caught my attention because it’s probably the easiest category to really get your arms around, however, the report is still peppered with jargon and glosses over some important details.
So, for my benefit, and yours, I constructed this summary of key tokens and a dumbed down version of what was said in the report, based on sources like the token website, CMC, etc. I also bullshit checked using Dune analytics as far as I was able to ensure it wasn’t just a buzzword-laden website driving speculation. These are all tokens that are verifiable on CMC or have a “points” system that probably will be turned into a token.
What I found was fascinating, and insanely bullish. Let's dive right in.
▼Filecoin (FIL)
Current market cap: 2.8 billion
Home chain: Its own chain
Industry Category: File storage
How it works: Aims to out-compete centralised cloud storage by creating a marketplace for spare disc space, rewarding providers with the token when they win contracts and when they prove they are storing files correctly.
Examples of real-world use cases: Decentralised Google drive. Perpetual storage of files on Lighthouse. p2p Filesharing on Filemarket.
Bull Case: A crypto “OG”; it’s been around since 2017. Price has not caught up with network utilisation. Messari cites 50m daily requests and 350 TB of bandwidth.
Bear Case: 42 other “storage” tokens listed on CMC – e.g., Arweave, OCEAN, ODIN
Potential upside: ATH was just under $200 in ’21 so at current prices ($5) a good 40x from here.
▼Helium ($HNT)
Current market cap: 1.03 billion
Home chain: Solana
Industry Category: Wireless coverage
How it works: Users can buy and mine Helium miners to broaden the Helium network and create a decentralised mobile network.
Examples of real-world use cases:
Cellular plans - Hello HeliumIoT – the “1663.io” website specifically lists asset tracking, cold chain monitoring, water monitoring, environmental monitoring and smart agriculture.
Senet – an existing IoT company – extended its network coverage by leveraging the Helium network.
DIMO – a car monitoring device designed to break the gatekeeping on error code reading and performance monitoring by leveraging the Helium network to sell their hardware cheaper. First lot of devices were supposed to ship in November last year.
Bull Case:
Number of real-world applications.Transition to Solana for better performance.
On track to acquire 500K subscribers in the next 18-24 months (Messari)
Bear Case:
Amount of runway left over – number of users must provide funds as seed investment capital runs out. (Messari) Token inflation from community rewards.Potential upside: ATH was just under $53 in ’22 so at least an 8x from here.
▼RENDR
Current market cap: 1.42 billion
Home chain: Solana
Industry Category: GPU Rendering network
How it works: Creates a marketplace for GPU power for rendering graphics for creative projects and provides traceability of the generated media. (particularly important in the new AI meta)
Examples of real-world use cases:
Octane – partnered with well-known game engine Unity, as well as RENDR, to offer Studio software for 20 pounds a month.Beam – a python cloud development environment that allows developers to build AI software by scaling across the virtual machines provided by Render. Their payment plan charges by the hour of core or RAM usage, plus a $90/month membership.
Io.net – allows users to rent out their GPUs for general use by others.
Bull Case:
Transition to Solana for better performance.One of the top three most lucrative DePIN seed investment rounds ever raised. (Messari)
Bear Case:
Mention of “manual verification” in the function of the network seems like a big failure mode.Low TVL compared to the rest of the ecosystem.
Potential upside: Price is already quite high. ATH in ’21 is ~$7 and current price is $4.
▼Fetch.ai
Current market cap: 549 million
Home chain: Binance, but IBC enabled too
Industry Category: AI services
How it works: Allows anyone to build AI services (chatbots) at scale without changing their API.
Examples of real-world use cases: They are still in the early access phase of their project, but they give examples on their website of the types of chatbots you can create.
Bull Case: It will benefit from the new AI narrative but the value it drives to the token doesn't look high.
Bear Case: RENDR a competitor.
Potential upside: Price is already quite high. ATH in ’21 was ~$1 and current price is 60c. Given the early state of their project, perhaps a hair overpriced.
▼Livepeer
Current market cap: 203 million
Home chain: Ethereum
Industry Category: Video streaming
How it works:
Delegated proof of stake token where the nodes provide computing power to broadcasters. Livepeer claims that it’s video transcribing technology is fifty times cheaper than centralised alternatives. Nodes are also responsible for processing videos into the different bitrates that can be consumed by the end user. Another type of node (broadcaster and relay nodes) are responsible for distributing content to the end user.Examples of real-world use cases:
Can be applied to create pay-as-you-go streaming platforms, uncensorable live journalism applications and digital conferences.Bull Case:
A “decentralised YouTube” called Tape, built on livepeer is already up and running. And it looks pretty slick.
4 active broadcasters, according to a dashboard I found on Dune.Bear Case:
THETA is a competitor, but Tape is more mobile friendly already.Potential upside: ATH in ’21 was ~$66, current price ~$7, so possibly a nice 10x this bull.
▼Hivemapper ($HONEY)
Current market cap: 184 million
Home chain: Solana
Industry Category: Crowdsourced/AI powered global Mapping
How it works: Install a camera on your car, let it record as you drive. Get rewarded in HONEY tokens. AI assembles the map into something that can be consumed by the end user.
Examples of real-world use cases: Decentralised Google Maps
Bull Case:
Solana has slapped Honey on their DePin page next to bigger names such as Helium.Plenty of buyers for the data.
In 2023, Hivemapper users mapped >10% of the world’s roads in return for <5% of total token supply. (Messari)
Bear Case:
Upcoming token inflation due to community rewards, but Messari notes that their rewards are efficient for the amount of land mapped.Potential upside: No bull run ATH yet because token was only released in 2022.
▼Braintrust ($BTRST)
Current market cap: 177 M
Home chain: Base
Industry Category: Talent Sourcing
How it works: Provides a platform to hirers to source talent. Clients (talent hunters) use the token to enhance their job postings, while job hunters (talent) use the token to take courses and enhance their proposals. Tokens can be staked to stand out of the crowd.
Examples of real-world use cases: Decentralised LinkedIn
Bull Case:
Network dashboard listed on the website lists 7035 total jobs listed, 600 000 community members and 390 000 talent applications so far.They seem to be aiming to capture a specific talent pool in software development (“Here’s who we’re looking for” section on the website), which at least gives me confidence they have non-crypto-related expertise that they are deploying to make the website work.
Bear Case:
Too “squishy” to drive value to the token.54% of token allocation for community rewards, so high token inflation upcoming.
Sounds like a dystopic hellscape for actually finding a job, but no worse than LinkedIn.
Lists “partner” big names with seemingly very little to back those claims up.
Potential upside: No bull run ATH yet because token was only released in 2022.
▼$DIMO
Current market cap: 97.3 million
Home chain: ETH/Poly
Industry Category: Car Data
How it works: Plug in DIMO device into your car and download the mobile app. This allows drivers to own the data generated by their car (error codes, battery health, miles travelled, etc) and get rewarded for sharing it to app providers.
Examples of real-world use cases: Decentralised and verifiable car service data, car app API service provider, battery health monitor, etc.
Bull Case:
Impressive website given the newness of the token, no CEX’s listed yet.App listed on App Store and Android store.
36 439 vehicle ID’s registered, according to a Dune dashboard I found.
Bear Case: High token inflation for upcoming community rewards.
Potential upside: Currently at ATH but only launched Feb 2023
▼Silencio
Not a listed token yet.
Industry Category: Noise Pollution
How it works: Receive “points” (not a token yet) on an app to record noise pollution in your environment. This data is then sold to help noise pollution efforts.
Examples of real-world use cases: City planning, making the world a better place
Bull Case:
The app is pretty slick and easy to use and it’s easy to collect “points”.>50K users in the first year (Messari)
Bear Case: Not sure how much demand there would be for that sort of data but it’s pretty interesting.
Potential upside: Infinite if you download the app and take a noise pollution sample of your environment for 30s.
Conclusions
As I read this report, it dawned on me that Messari may have released this report for free because dozens of DePIN projects will be massively diluting their token prices with community rewards unless they create some chatter about what they are building. However, what some of them are building are genuinely bullish and innovative. Crypto is gunning to tear down walled gardens everywhere, and allowing people to own pieces of a system that might just change the world. I aped in on several, let's find out if it pays off.
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