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As I await the time for me to hit the road and head toward Rockwall, Texas to set up a book table in a grocery store there, I thought I'd jot down some quick thoughts on the 2024 bull run. Here are 5 things that make this bull run a special time for crypto.
1. BTC Has Already Hit (at least) 5 All-Time Highs
Bitcoin hit its first all-time high (ATH) in two years on March 5. Since then, in less than one week, it has surpassed its ATH at least 5 times.
Bitcoin's previous ATH was $68K and some change, achieved on November 10, 2021. The significance of this event is astounding considering the next point.
2. The 4th Bitcoin Halving Has Yet to Happen
While crypto bull runs typically begin prior to the bitcoin halving, which happens approximately every four years, all-time highs usually do not happen until later in the bull run. The fact that we've seen multiple all-time highs before the bitcoin halving means there is much to look forward to in the coming year.
The halving is when bitcoin miners see their rewards for discovering blocks cut in half. As a result, a new economic reality arrives making mining more difficult and costly. However, the lesser rewards drive the cost of bitcoin higher. That's why all-time highs usually happen toward the end of the bull run. If history is any measure, we could see BTC go well over $100,000 this time around, and it may even go as high as $150,000.
3. Bitcoin Bull Runs Usually Last 12-18 Months
Historically, bitcoin bull runs last 12 to 18 months. Since we first started seeing BTC's price rise in October last year, we can expect this bull run to last at least until October this year. It is likely to last throughout the year, but investors would be wise to look for easing signals in the fourth quarter.
Ordinarily, crypto bull runs last until December during the year of the stampede. I see no reason to expect anything different this time around.
4. This Bull Run Appears To Be Different Than Previous Bull Runs
It's not hard to see why this bull run is different than previous bull runs. After all, we've already seen several all-time highs and the full stampede hasn't begun yet. Forbes does a good job of explaining, beyond the all-time highs, why this bull run is different. In summary, it boils down to 3 things:
Institutional investors are driving the train. This is unlike previous bull runs where retail investors were the primary driver of price increases. Personally, I think the arrival of institutional money is good for the market.
People are putting bitcoin into retirement accounts. This signals a long-term hold strategy, and that means the market is maturing.
Investors are more confident of regulatory clarity. The lawsuit against XRP was a major win for the crypto industry. A federal judge has ruled that XRP is not a security, which means many other altcoins can release a deep sigh of relief. As the U.S. continues to move toward regulatory clarity, more investors will be confident of its future and more money will enter the market.
5. Investors Anticipate Altcoin Season
In 2017, many investors capitalized on the rising price of altcoins. This cycle, everyone is anticipating altseason. With that anticipation comes many predictions about which altcoins will rise the highest and which ones have the most potential. Personally, I think the following altcoins have the best potential for huge gains during this bull run:
Ethereum - Ethereum is not a difficult prediction. While attention has been on the myriad "Ethereum killers" and layer-2 tokens since the last bull run, Ethereum still has a lot of life in it. It is the leading altcoin and will remain so for quite some time. Ethereum has a robust ecosystem with a lot of development. Sure, its gas fees are outrageous and out of range for many people, but the crypto rich, status quo, and institutions with money and plans are still using it and will continue to do so.
XRP - XRP took a huge hit when the SEC sued in December 2020. However, Ripple Labs' subsequent win means this token is undervalued. XRP fell in the market cap rankings where it started as third, and the position it has held since its inception in 2012. XRP currently rides in sixth place in the market cap listings. It may never rise to third again, but that isn't the point. XRP has several use cases and a built-in target market, unlike the majority of altcoins. The fact that institutional investments are pouring into crypto now, and driving BTC's price increase, is a signal that the market may be ready for what Ripple Labs has to offer. There is a lot of growth potential and I think XRP may overcome its all-time high, if not this altcoin season then the next.
Layer-2 Tokens - Take your pick of Layer-2 tokens. While Ethereum has a lot going on, there are many people disgruntled over where it has landed, and where it is headed. That means the market is ripe for the layer-2 tokens to expand and build upon their bases. Whether your favorite is Polygon, Arbitrum, or Optimism, this altcoin season could be Layer-2 Season. And these are not the only layer-2 tokens to choose from. Immutable X, Evernode, and Loopring are layer-2 altcoins to keep an eye on. Look beyond Ethereum to other blockchains for good layer-2 tokens with value. On that note, LEO, a layer-2 token on the Hive blockchain is getting a good start during this cycle, as well. You heard it here first.
If the 2024 crypto bull run will be anything, I expect it to be a wild ride. Keep your eyes open for opportunities and weigh the risks carefully.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
For a little history of the crypto market, check out my Paragraph book Diamonds and Pearls: The History of the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies.
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