Where's the 2024 Bull Run?

The crypto market is rich with anticipation. We know a bull run is forthcoming and many market participants are waiting for it to happen any day now. But when?

If we examine the past three bitcoin halvings and their associated bull runs, we can predict with some confidence when the market will begin to climb after the fourth bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024.

I recently looked back at the first three halvings to see when the first price lift occurred after the halving, those price lifts, of course, precipitating the bull run that followed. Here's what I found.

The first bitcoin took place in 2012. The exact date was November 28. However, the bull run didn't occur until several months later. In fact, the first price lift that led into the bull run occurred on April 11, 2013.

What this tells us is that a bull run typically follows the halving, but not immediately. The first price spike leading into a crypto bull run occurred 4-1/2 months after the first bitcoin halving. We can get into the details about what other events occurred around that time to influence the bull run, but that isn't my point here. I'm simply looking at the timeline.

The first crypto bull run began approximately 4-1/2 months after the first bitcoin halving.

The second bitcoin halving occurred in 2016 followed by the second crypto bull run later that year. As you can see from the following chart, the bull run's first price lift occurred approximately 5-1/2 months after the halving.

The third bitcoin halving is legendary. We saw bitcoin's price go to a new all-time high. However, that didn't occur until many months after the third halving.

The third bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020. The first price lift occurred on August 10, 2020, three months after the halving.

As we can see, the first price lift that leads into the crypto bull run has historically taken place 3 to 6 months after the bitcoin halving event. The fourth bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2024. That means, 3 months later, we are now entering the period when we can expect the price of bitcoin to begin climbing.

Of course, that doesn't mean it will happen this month. It could, but it may not. The window of time for a reasonable expectation of the first price lift is between July 2024 and October 2024. However, we already know this bitcoin bull run is going to be different than previous bull runs. That's largely because the crypto market is different. But there is one other thing that is different about the crypto market this year than in previous years.

In 2022, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that all but declared war on cryptocurrencies. Since then, the crypto environment has been beset with much uncertainty. However, recent wins against the Securities and Exchange Commission that resulted in some cryptocurrencies, like XRP, being declared non-securities have lessened the impact of the Biden Administration's approach. Still, the Administration has been very unfriendly toward the crypto community.

Former President Donald Trump and the current Republican nominee in the current election has promised to support crypto should he be elected in November. At the Republican National Convention last week, Trump made this promise:

We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.

The former president also promised to oppose the creation of a Digital Bank Cryptocurrency.

While crypto enthusiasts don't have the numbers to influence the election one way or the other, you can be sure that crypto market enthusiasts are watching the election very closely in hopes that they might have an ally in the White House. The November election could, and likely will, have an impact on the price of bitcoin and the associated bull run. Even if Democrats win in November, the price of bitcoin will likely climb, but if the Republicans win, it will likely climb higher.

While the current window for the beginning of the next bull run is sometime between July and October, I don't expect the bull run to hit until after the election in November, or perhaps just before it. Much of that depends on how well Biden's heir-apparent, Kamala Harris, does on the campaign trail. If she puts up a good fight, it could be November before we see the beginnings of the next bull run. If she flops and loses the support of major donors and/or constituents, we could see the first rise in bitcoin's price as early as August or September. My bet is this is going to be a competitive election and the price of bitcoin will reflect that.

Allen Taylor is the author of Web3 Social: How Creators Are Changing the World Wide Web (And You Can Too!).