Caveat: This essay was originally intended to be published a week ago. In that time, Aston Villa have played an FA Cup tie against Tottenham and a Premier League game against Ipswich Town.

Last Saturday Aston Villa lost 2-0 to a struggling Wolves side, it was the latest upset in what has been a very underwhelming Premier League campaign for The Villans so far.

Off the back of a stellar campaign last season that saw them finish 4th and qualify for the Champions League, they've really struggled in the league this season. They currently sit in 8th with 37 points, 6 points adrift of Chelsea in 4th place, and at the moment the smart money is probably on Villa not qualifying for the UCL next season. Who knows, they might miss out on Europe altogether if things continue as they've been going.

The reason isn't because the gap between Aston Villa and UCL qualification is insurmountable, especially given the inconsistency of Man City and Chelsea, the two teams above them. The reasons have more to do with internal problems within the Aston Villa squad itself.

To get a good idea of why pessimism might be the dominant mood regarding Villa's UCL hopes for next season just look at the back four from that loss against Wolves.

At least two of their regular starters in Tyrone Mings and Matty Cash are injured right now. And they simply have no replacements for them, at least not good ones. Boubacar Kamara isn't even a defender, and Andres Garcia only arrived at the club from Levante a few weeks ago. On the bench for that game, their only defensive players were Ian Maatsen who is supposed to be Lucas Digne's backup at left-back, and 19-year-old Kosta Nedeljković who plays at right-back and will likely compete with Andres Garcia for that spot in Cash's absence.

So, as you can see, Villa has a defensive injury crisis. Their goal difference of -3 is partly down to Villa being unable to defend properly. They've also shipped 37 goals so far this season, in the top 10 only Brighton has let in more goals (38).

Now, add to those defensive woes, some offensive woes as well.

Aston Villa have not been scoring as they usually do, they have scored the least amount of goals of any team in the top 10 so far this season. It was clear that they needed to dip into the market seriously in January, and their January business is perhaps reflective of their priorities.

The Transfer Business

Having sold Jhon Duran to Al Nassr for £77M, Villa had some cash to spend in the window (if you're an accounting nerd, yes I understand that it's not that straightforward).

Given their defensive woes, you would think that Villa spent most of their transfer budget on shoring up the defence, but you would be wrong. Besides Andres Garcia the only other defensive reinforcement was Axel Disasi, a center-back on loan from Chelsea. It's not exactly impressive, especially when you consider that they also let Diego Carlos go leaving them lighter at center-back, at least in terms of bodies.

Villa has instead opted for attacking reinforcements during this window, bringing in Donyell Malen, Marcus Rashford, and Marcos Asensio to strengthen the forward line.

At first glance, the move might seem odd, but in reality, while not as pronounced as the defensive crisis, Villa do have an offensive crisis on their hands on their hands. With Jhon Duran heading to Saudi Arabia, all the goal-scoring duties now rest on the shoulders of Ollie Watkins.

Emi Buendia and Jadon Philogene also left the club this January, leaving Emery's options in front incredibly thin. Only Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey, and Jacob Ramsey remain as offensive options for Emery.

Add to that the fact that Emery has struggled to get the best out of the front line this season, and it's not hard to see why offensive recruitments were necessary. Leon Bailey's form has dipped and he is no longer the reliable pairing to Watkins that he once was. Jacob Ramsey's 3 goal involvements in 16 matches is not the greatest return. With a UCL campaign on their hands as well as a potential FA Cup run, Villa needed more firepower.

The Offensive Reinforcements

Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United.

Marco Asensio on loan from PSG.

Donyell Malen on a permanent transfer from Borussia Dortmund.

Needless to say, Unai Emery has taken some real gambles here, let's look at each of them in some detail.

Marcus Rashford.

Marcus Rashford is, I think we all know, a top talent. When he's on his game he is arguably one of the most devastating wingers/forwards in the world. He's got frightening pace, running power, and he's blessed with the ability to strike the ball really well.

He already showed some of that ball-striking ability on his debut for Villa as you can see in the video below.

The problem with Rashford is that he is not the most consistent player.

All the potential in the world means nothing if you cannot be counted on to impact the game in the way everyone knows you can every week.

Villa does need pace and power up front, they haven't had that reliably since Diaby left (Bailey hasn't been at his best). Emery's compact 4-4-2 excels when the two men up top are direct and powerful enough to keep the opposition's defence on their toes, and in Rashford Emery has what looks like the perfect partner for Watkins up top.

The question is, can Emery coax consistency out of him? Especially given where he might be mentally coming off the back of a pretty difficult period at Manchester United.

Now, Marco Asensio.

I will admit straight away that I haven't kept tabs on Asensio's career since he moved to PSG. I remember him from his Madrid days as a very versatile attacker who could play across the front line to varying degrees and even slot into a central midfield position if required. (Just by the way, I'm quite surprised that Asensio is still only 29).

I'm not quite sure what role Emery has in mind for Asensio. From all indications, he has developed into a false nine during his time at PSG as the graphic below from Opta shows.

Should Emery intend to deploy him there it does offer both a backup for Watkins in Duran's absence and a different dynamic up top. Unlike Watkins, Asensio is not a clinical finisher who is keen to get on the end of chances created by teammates and score goals.

He is more akin to a Firmino, willing to drop deep, link play, and try to create scoring opportunities for his teammates (something he's adept at given his excellent range of passing). Putting two pacy forwards on either side of Asensio (say Rashford and Malen) should offer Villa a different set of options offensively and enable them to adapt to their opponents (say against a low-block for example).

As with the Rashford signing, the big question is, "Can Emery get him back to his best consistently over the next few months?" We'll see.

And, finally, Donyell Malen.

Well, this was (I thought) the one straightforward Villa offensive signing. I happen to be very familiar with Malen from watching the Netherlands men's national football team play over the past year.

He's a 26-year-old versatile forward, in form at the moment, and with Champions League experience under his belt (including a run to the final with Dortmund last year). This felt like the instant impact signing, the one who would immediately come in and hit the ground running.

But then Villa left him out of their Champions League squad, and I'm not so sure what is going on anymore (not that I ever really was).

Malen is another pacy and tricky forward who can play as the striker or in his preferred position on the right-wing. In Malen, Emery has a Rashford-esque player on the right, giving Villa even greater versatility in how they set up offensively for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, we won't see Malen in the UCL, but Aston Villa do still have the Premier League and FA Cup to think about and it stands to reason that we will be seeing more of Malen in those competitions than the other forwards.

It's also worth noting that Malen is the only forward Villa signed permanently this transfer window, so it definitely does seem that he is in Villa's long-term plans at the moment and neither Asensio nor Rashford are. We will see.

In Conclusion

Here is everything we know so far.

Unai Emery has a reputation for revitalising the careers of struggling forwards. His time at Arsenal saw Aubameyang and Lacazette have some of their best seasons at the club for example. Even Ollie Watkins was not the prolific forward we know now until Emery joined the club.

Una Emery is also an excellent cup competition manager. He may not be your guy over a 38-game season, but in competitions that require you to win over two legs, Emery is right up there with the very best in the sport.

Unai Emery almost certainly has a Champions League run on his mind at the moment.

To achieve his Champions League goals, Unai Emery has turned to two talented but unpredictable forwards in Asensio and Rashford.

I think it's fair to say that how Aston Villa perform in the Champions League this season is the ultimate test of Emery's ability to coach and bring out the best in his forwards.

Up The Villans!

Aston Villa's UCL Push And Emery's Offensive Gamble