Future Club // Perspectives #3

Is there a future for cryptocurrency beyond speculation?

Abstract:

Are cryptocurrencies poised to revolutionize global financial systems by enabling the tokenization of real-world assets and the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)? Through tokenization, cryptocurrencies offer a secure, efficient, and transparent method for converting physical assets into digital assets, thereby enhancing liquidity and accessibility in global markets. Meanwhile, CBDCs promise to streamline monetary policies and transactions, offering a digital counterpart to traditional fiat currencies. Together, these advancements are set to significantly impact global trade, investment, and monetary policy, paving the way for a more interconnected and digital-first financial landscape.

Three perspectives: 

  1. CBDCs: Enabling Enhanced Financial Efficiency and Security

CBDCs, the digital equivalent of government-issued currency, offer a blend of efficiency, security, and wider access, potentially transforming financial services. For example CBDCs can facilitate instant cross-border transactions with minimal fees, surpassing the efficiency of traditional fiat currency systems or can significantly reduce the risk of counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions, providing a more secure and trustworthy alternative to physical fiat currencies. Different models, from direct central bank accounts to blockchain-enabled digital tokens, are being tested worldwide, with the aim of enhancing liquidity, reducing costs, and increasing financial inclusion. However, challenges such as technological stability, privacy concerns, and the actual demand for digital versus traditional currency remain.

At present, 87 countries — representing more than 90 percent of global GDP are exploring CBDCs.

Read more: the World Economic Forum on the future of CBDCs

  1. RWA: Real-world-assets enabling liquidity, transparency and fractional ownership of assets 

Real World Assets (RWAs) include tangible and intangible assets like real estate, bonds and intellectual property, which can be tokenized on a blockchain, transforming traditional asset management by increasing efficiency, security, and accessibility. This tokenization facilitates fractional ownership, significantly enhancing liquidity and opening investment opportunities previously limited to high-capital investors. The total addressable market (TAM) for RWA tokenization is estimated to reach between $10 to 15Tr the end of the decade and is attracting the eye of major institutional participants.

Example of RWA tokenization on the Polygon blockchain

“I believe the next generation for markets, the next generation for securities will be tokenization of securities. Distributed ledgers will bring instantaneous settlement and change the whole ecosystem” - Larry Fink, CEO BlackRock

Read investment firm Outlier Ventures' Thesis on Real World Assets

  1. "No impact beyond speculation" - Nobel Prize winning Economist Paul Krugman

Krugman, Paul | CUNY Graduate Center

Paul Krugman critiques Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as economically purposeless, speculative, and not meaningfully integrated into real economic activities. He questions their high transaction costs, lack of practical tethering to the economy, and potential bubble nature. Krugman argues that crypto's appeal lies in narratives rather than substantive economic utility, highlighting its inefficiency and vulnerability to trust issues despite its decentralized intent. His skepticism extends to the broader implications of cryptocurrencies' impact on financial systems and their real-world applicability.

Watch "A skeptic's view on crypto" a debate with Paul Krugman and Katie Haun

Bonus perspectives

The idealist: Balaji

Balaji Srinivasan's "The Network State" presents a roadmap for creating a new country using blockchain and cryptocurrency, emphasizing the transition from digital communities to physical sovereign entities. Srinivasan envisions network states as digitally native societies that crowdfund territory and aim for diplomatic recognition, built around shared purposes and enabled by crypto economies. Despite its innovative proposal, the book also highlights the scattered and ambitious nature of implementing such a concept in reality, suggesting a significant shift in how societies form and govern themselves.

Book: The Network State


The investor: Chris Dixon

Chris Dixon offers an optimistic view on using blockchain technology to rebuild the internet, freeing it from the grip of Big Tech monopolies. Dixon argues that, like AI and electric cars, blockchain may be a late bloomer but is on the verge of significant breakthroughs, evidenced by the rapid growth of projects like Ethereum and the passionate communities around various tokens. Despite skepticism, Dixon's vision suggests a blockchain-based internet could emerge sooner than anticipated, driven by technological advancements and the enthusiastic adoption by younger generations.

Podcast: Chris Dixon on the Pivot podcast with his case for crypto

The Degen:

A degen is a cryptocurrency trader who frequently engages in highly speculative and risky trades.

Noteworthy Concepts:

  • Blockchain: A decentralized ledger technology that records transactions across multiple computers in a way that ensures security, transparency, and immutability, forming the backbone of cryptocurrencies and enabling trustless, peer-to-peer digital transactions.

  • Cryptocurrency: Digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security and operate on blockchain technology, allowing for secure, anonymous transactions outside the purview of traditional financial institutions.

  • CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency): A digital form of a country's fiat currency, issued and regulated by the central bank, designed to modernize the financial system by offering a digital alternative to traditional banknotes.

  • Digital Asset: Any asset that is formatted into a digital format, encompassing a wide range of digital files, including cryptocurrencies, digital art, and rights to use online properties, characterized by their unique ownership or rights stored on a blockchain.

  • Web3: The third generation of the World Wide Web, incorporating concepts such as decentralization, blockchain technologies, and token-based economics, aiming to create a user-owned, open internet.

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