Timing the Market Is More Important Than Time in the Market

What’s the most important factor for success in crypto investing?

I wish I could say it’s fundamental analysis because I spend a lot of time doing that. And unfortunately for the savvy traders, I don’t think short term trading skill is the answer either.

Rather, it’s the ability to time the cycle well. Get in and out at the right time, and even the stinkiest of poopcoins will net you a ten bagger. Time the cycle wrong, and even Ethereum will cost you a 70% drawdown.

Even though cycles were dominant historically in crypto, there was once a time it might have been better to buy and hold through multiple cycles instead of trying to time them. But the fact that Bitcoin and Ethereum only peaked at levels 3-4x from the 2017 top to the 2021 top forced me to confront the harsh reality: buy-and-hold for Bitcoin and Ethereum is no longer the optimal strategy.

So how do I time the cycle? Obviously, few have the ability to predict it perfectly, so I’m just looking to time the cycle “well enough” to outperform other investors. This involved creating my own private set of criteria for when to go long and when to exit.

At the moment, the gm Portfolio is in cash. With respect to my personal holdings, I sold the vast majority around ETH $2,680 back in early May 2022, some of which I had held for nearly a decade.