With ChatGPT 4o - I am back to thinking what type of work will stay and what will disappear sooner. I believe that it showed us that useful multi-modal AI is closer than we thought.
I am pretty much in a camp of believing there are two types of work - they will both disappear but one sooner. The sad thing is that most educational systems and universities actually prepare you for the first type of work. Here we go;
Bucket 1:
As I said, I believe there are two large buckets that are defined by the type of work people do. The first bucket includes types of work that are repetitive - you repeat what you learned or were taught by your colleagues when you joined and (maybe) you can incrementally improve or slightly change it over time.
This is what is in the nature of some professions - like accountants, lawyers, middle managers, sadly (in many countries) also teachers and even professors. Some professions do it by nature, but even more people do it because it’s nature of the job description they were slapped with when they joined a company. So the list of professions would be very very long.
I think we can agree that this type of work will slowly and mostly disappear. I’m not saying if that’s good or bad, one could make a case for both sides. But this trend has already started and it’s here to stay. Lame work must go.
Bucket 2:
Then there’s a second bucket of work - work I like more and most of you subscribed to this newsletter probably too. This is the type work where you are trying to imagine new things, things that have not been done before, sometimes you are trying to dream up new worlds, new markets, new products, new services.
In this type of work, you are not only dreaming, but you’re also looking for ways to try these new things, test them and see if and how well they’re working. Obviously, I’m biased and I would like this type of work to stay longer. And I believe it will stay longer but it will eventually disappear as well. Why?
Because as more and more things move online, it will become natural for AI to dream up (aka hallucinate) new directions and possibilities - it will have all the data necessary about past, current, and predicted future behaviors, and it will be able to devise tests and create beta products in real-time. I don’t know if humans can be better than AI even in the initial direction setting because all of it will be happening in AI’s (so to say) home turf which is digital space.
Factors to consider:
For me, the first and the most important factor to consider, when thinking about these topics, is how much are humans involved in the whole process. More humans involved = longer shelf life before AI disruption for that type of work.
Also there areas like art, that produce tangental and often illogical outcomes that will be hard to reproduce for the machines. (See previous thoughts on AI here.)
Well, I park it here. This did not really bring anything new into my thinking framework, but it reassured me 😁 that Farcaster community is a good place to be before AI comes to take our fun away 😉
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