Yesterday I casted this on Farcaster-
It was more like a note to myself for the coming days. So many builders are cooking. Increased activity has all the indications of a coming market frenzy. As a survivor of the last cycle, I want to make sure not to do the same mistakes.
Activity doesn't mean value
Hype of a project should not cloud the judgment. Hype directly increases the activity, which dies as soon as the hype around it dies. This happens because there may not be real value that the project is adding to users or the space. Many projects caught the wave, but few sustained it. It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement, to convince yourself that this time will be different because it feels different.
Patience over FOMO
FOMO can drive irrational decisions. Patience in waiting for the right opportunity and fully understanding a project often yields better results than rushing into something that feels urgent but lacks substance. Patience is taking the time to go through everything about the project and then making your own thesis about it.
Community is strength
While hype can inflate numbers, a real, engaged community that understands and supports the mission of a project often signals its potential for success. A passionate, informed community is a stronger asset than empty noise. A community can succeed and can drive a project into real utility. After all, most valuable things in this world have a strong community behind them. People do buy famous paintings as an investment, but there are millions of art lovers who understand the value behind it.
Adaptability is the Key
The best projects and teams adapt to market conditions and tech landscapes. Netflix began in 1997 as a DVD rental-by-mail service but pivoted to streaming in 2007, adapting to evolving technology. Its shift into original content, starting with House of Cards in 2013, helped it become a global leader in entertainment. The onchain landscape is changing every week, so a team's ability to evolve is often more important than their initial roadmap.
Don’t confuse complexity with innovation
In the Great NFT boom, we saw complex NFT projects that felt innovative. But underneath their complex dynamics, there was no real innovation to make them unique or valuable. Teams often use complexity to create hype around the project in hopes of finding grounding in the near future when the community is engaged. But often they die quicker than their inception. Most times, simplicity is more effective and sustainable. Uniswap is a good example of simplicity in front, complexity underneath—not the other way around.
Most importantly - Be True to Yourself
Utility, efficiency, and lasting impact are rare and hard-earned. As builders and investors, it’s crucial to remain grounded. Just because a project is tied to your bag or someone you admire doesn’t make it a great project. The space is filled with intelligent, well-meaning people, but that’s not a guarantee of success.
In the coming days, the temptation to dive in headfirst will grow. Staying true to yourself means not losing sight of the basics. Be honest in your assessments, even when it’s difficult. This doesn’t mean being harsh or dismissive. There’s always a respectful way to speak the truth. Many will know far more than you in certain areas, and you’ll know more than them in others. Remember, we’re all just normies in most things.
This time, let’s move forward with a clearer perspective. The market might heat up, but wisdom lies in not repeating the same mistakes. Stay curious, stay honest, and keep touching grass.
