GM DOers! š
Are NFTs back? Here are a few recent happenings that might make you think they are:
1ā£ Simpsons released an episode all about NFTs which begins with Homer minting Bart as an NFT.
2ā£ Joe Rogan and Elon Musk discussed the good and the bad of NFTs.
3ā£ Mark Cuban made a very bullish video that went viral where he basically compared NFTs right now to Amazon stock when it was $5.
4ā£ Yuga Labs & BAYC founder, Wylie Aronow aka GordonGoner.eth, purchased a CryptoPunk for over $1.1 million.
2h later he spent 600 ETH on this punk.
Thatās $1.1 million
1
The NFT crowd went mad.
To add fuel to the fire, we can see that the total NFT market cap has gone up from ~2.8 million $ETH to current prices of 3.2 million $ETH.
For context, thatās a whopping $752,016,000 surge in total NFT market cap, up to $5.9 billion.
So, thereās a lot of bullishness happening with NFTs as of late.
The awareness that these big celebs have brought upon the NFT space, paired with some positive price action has excited a lot of crypto & NFT enthusiasts.
But does this mean weāre back? Will we head to higher highs in the near future? Should you FOMO back into NFTs?
TL;DR ā Not quite! It looks like the current narrative is driven by a few big events, and frankly, it doesnāt seem sustainable.
But letās look onchain to learn more. ā¬
The Onchain Gift Shop Season 1 Ends Soon
On Monday, the 13th of Nov, Season 1 of the Onchain Gift Shop will end. It was an absolute blast!
We gave away Lens Protocol profiles, NFTs worth hundreds of dollars, and now a Solana Saga PHONE!
Wanna win? Hereās how you enter:
Collect this newsletter (free)
Connect your wallet and enter the raffle
Big shout out goes to Paragraph, who made this whole thing possible by providing the web3 features required. š
NFT Onchain Stats ššā
Hereās what gets everyone in the NFT space excited. NFTs have gone up in volume for the last 4 weeks straight.
That last bar represents this week (yet to end), which is why itās so small.
However, if we look closer, we can see that Blur is responsible for all of that NFT volume.
Hereās the chart excluding all other marketplaces.
Looks identical, ey? Thatās because Blur has settled more trading in the past month than all other marketplaces combined.
But why is that? Because of the upcoming Season 2 for Blur, aka the next airdrop thatāll be distributed to NFT traders whoāve used the platform.
With this in mind, we can assume that much of the NFT volume is generated by people trying to game the system to get an airdrop.
But letās see what else is driving up the hype.
In the last 30 days, 3 collections have made up 40% of the total NFT volume. Those collections are BAYC, MAYC, and Captainz by Memeland.
Hereās what I think happened:
1. ApeFest Speculation
Last week, we wrote about how Solana shared a bunch of exciting news at their Breakpoint conference, which drove up the price of $SOL close to 100%.
I think that people expected the same to happen at ApeFest, which just ended this weekend, so they bought NFTs, hoping theyād go up in price.
2. Memecoin Airdrop
Last week, Memeland by 9GAG airdropped its Memecoin token. Ahead of the airdrop, many people traded Memeland NFTs like Captainz, Potatoz, and YOU THE REAL MVP to be eligible for the airdrop.
Itās clear this happened, since the floor price of these NFTs tanked after the airdrop was distributed.
The Captainz down 31% š
The Potatoz down 23% š
YOU THE REAL MVP down 10% š
You may be thinking that thereās some more to this than just hype around narratives, but when I look onchain, I donāt see things that contradict this theory.
Hereās the amount of unique buyers. Since July, weāve been ranging between 25k and 35k buyers. A stagnation that suggests that thereās no new entrants in this space.
And we better hope that thereās no newbies in this space because in the last 30 days, 510K people lost money with NFTs while only 41K realized a profit. š¬
Thatās insane. š²
Lastly, I wanted to share the floor price of the NFT market. Hereās the Blue Chip Index, showing the market cap of the biggest NFT collections out there.
Youāll see that itās up, which is good.
However, it mirrors the price of $ETH in the last month almost identically.
So, itās more likely that the recent surge of the NFT market was actually just driven by the rise of $ETH.
Keep reading for our conclusion.
Enjoy Looking Onchain?
If you enjoyed this onchain analysis today, youāll absolutely LOVE our PRO membership.
Each week, weāre sending out an onchain report packed with industry insights that help you make sense of whatās actually happening in the markets beyond the hype and noise.
If you want this report to hit your inbox every Thursday, make sure to upgrade your subscription.
P.S.- Weāve got an exciting PRO report on Starbucks coming up tomorrow, written by your favorite NFT degen, Jay Hamilton. š«”
Conclusion š§µ
Letās answer the questions from the intro:
Are we back? Will NFTs head to higher highs in the near future? Should you FOMO back into NFTs?
Iāve recently shared on Twitter that if $ETH can break the $1,900 resistance that itās facing right now, it will break out and run to a new high, likely in the mid $2,000s range.
Itās game on.
$BTC and $SOL have already broken out.
Soon time for $ETH to follow
If that happens, then NFTs will probably follow, as people will move $ETH down the risk curve, into the NFT market. Remember how money flows in crypto.
But that doesnāt mean you should FOMO into NFTs now!
As shown above, NFTs are heavily fueled by short-term hype like the Blur Season 2, the ApeFest conference, the Memecoin airdrop, all the celebs talking about NFTs and moreā¦
Thatās probably not enough to sustain the price over the coming period, after the hype inevitably dies out.
Lastly, I wanted to remind everyone that the NFT market is still heavily dominated by PFPs in terms of volume.
But if youāve been a long-time reader/listener of Web3 Academy, youād know that the use-case for NFTs goes far beyond just PFPs.
However, weāre yet to see true mass adoption, which is why the PFP narrative ā which is often very speculative ā still remains the strongest.
If you want to fully grasp how NFTs will go mainstream, then I suggest you listen to Jay and our friend Herbie in a recent podcast episode.
Thanks for reading. And remember, you're strong, youāre powerful, youāre alpha! ā¤
Todayās piece was a little different than usual & Iām curious to see how you liked it.
How'd you feel about our read today?
Join us on Discord | Follow us on Twitter
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions or taking any action based on the content.
